Southwest Florida Real Estate Market Update

SWFL Real Estate Market Update:
02-05-2021

Happy Friday Everyone!

In light of all the end of year stats/reports coming out I felt compelled to share the big picture numbers covering all of Southwest Florida for 2020, as well as for the month of January. What we’re experiencing in our market is truly remarkable and it just goes to show the desirability for people to be here in this paradise we are fortunate to call home.

2019 vs 2020:

Closed Sales – Transactions: In 2020 we had 38,933 closed transactions which is up 16.3% from all of 2019 which had in 33,490 total.

Q1 2020 ( 8,709 Closed Sales) vs Q1 2019 ( 7,133 Closed Sales): Up 22.1%
Q2 2020 ( 7,792 Closed Sales) vs Q2 2019 ( 10,378 Closed Sales): Down 25%
Q3 2020 ( 10,612 Closed Sales) vs Q3 2019 ( 8,033 Closed Sales): Up 32.1%
Q4 2020 ( 11,820 Closed Sales) vs Q4 2019 ( 7,946 Closed Sales): Up 48.8%

***Top Month Oct (up 56%) and Worst Month May (down 45%)

Closed Sales – Volume: In 2020 we saw $38.4 Billion in closed volume which is up 36% from all of 2019 which had 28.2 Billion. Naples accounts for almost 50% of the total volume.

Inventory: We’ve been slowly losing inventory since 2018 which dropped about 20% into 2019, and down another 44% in 2020 leaving us in dire need of supply.

Median & Average Price: Our markets are showing anywhere from 7% to 14% increases for all of 2020 when compared to 2019 and some niche pockets even higher (Central Naples 34105 up 29.1%)

Luxury Market:

$1+ Million for 2020 (2,979 Closed Sales) for all of SWFL vs 2019 (1,905 Closed Sales) for all of SWFL, Up 56%. ***2,108 of 2,979 or about 71% cash.

$2+ Million for 2020 (1,124 Closed Sales) for all of SWFL vs 2019 (661 Closed Sales) for all of SWFL, Up 70%. ***874 of 1,124 or about 77.8% cash.

Cash Sales (39.8%) in Total by City:

Naples (48%); Bonita Springs (50.3%); Estero (48.3%); Fort Myers (39.2%); Cape Coral (24.7%)

Top Areas for Growth:

Naples: North Naples (34110) up 35%, Golden Gate Estates (34120) up 30.5%, and Naples Beach (Vanderbilt Beach south to Gordon’s Pass) up 27.5%.

Bonita Springs: Spanish Wells (BN09) up 36.8%, Bonita Beach Rd/I-75 & east (BN12) up 34.1%, Black Island (FB07) up 27.3%, and Bonita Beach (BN01) up 25.9%.

Estero: ES03 which is 75/Corkscrew and east up 34.2%.

How has 2021 Looked Through January?

Pending Sales: In the past 7 days we’ve seen a staggering 1,858 homes go pending which is up 249% from our 7 day average closings for all of 2020 (746 per 7 days). For all of January we saw 5,027 total pending sales which is up 55% from our 2020 monthly average (3,244). All in all, pending sales are VERY strong.

Closed Sales: We’ve seen 1,147 closed transactions in the past 7 days which is up 53% from our 2020 7-day average (746). For January we’ve seen 3,186 closed sales down 1.7% from our 2020 monthly average (3,244). Expect an increase given the high rate of pending sales and the first 6 months of 2021 should be consistent.

Month’s Supply: If you consider our 2020 total closed sales (38,933) and find our 12 month average, we are closing 3,244 per month. With only 6,165 current active listings we just under 2 months of available inventory. What’s even scarier, if we consider the past 30 day pending sale rate of absorption (5,027) we’d be down close to 1 month of inventory.

New Construction: New construction is a direct source of new supply but it has been difficult for them to keep up and in some cases freezing sales all together for a duration of time. It will be highly competitive until we find more of an equilibrium between supply/demand.

History of Closed Transactions Year over Year:

2020: 38,933: Up 16.1%
2019: 33,490: Up 4.7%
2018: 31,957: Up 5.9%
2017: 30,154: Up 1.7%
2016: 29,661: Down 9.5%
2015: 32,795: Up 3%
2014: 31,827: Up 2.7%
2013: 30,984: Up 4.7%
2012: 29,601: Down 3.9%
2011: 30,818: Down .5%
2010: 30,955: Up .8%
2009: 30,723: Up 65.6%
2008: 18,548: Up 39.5%
2007: 13,247: Down 24.4%
2006: 17,528: Down 37.8%
2005: 28,192: Up 9.7%
2004: 25,379: Up 17.5%
2003: 21,607: NA

Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Expect most of the same trends to continue into 2021 (high buyer demand, low interest rates, supply issues) but here’s a few thoughts and/or factors to keep an eye on:

Inventory: This will be the “governor” to our 2021 production and an obvious pain point at the moment. Closed sales could be limited in the later months of 2021 by the ability to meet the current level of demand.

Appreciation: Most expect the market to experience more moderate growth in value in 2021 as most project anywhere from 3% to 5%, with others a bit more aggressive showing up to 7% or 8%. The nature of our current supply and demand will keep an upward pressure on pricing.

Continued Growth: It is estimated that 850 people will be moving to Florida per day for the next 5 years as many seek the weather, lifestyle, and many tax benefits offered here. The perfect storm of events have allowed our market to thrive more than most in the entire US.

Overall, we are currently in the heart of a very strong real estate market and barring any crazy unforeseen circumstance, this market is not going to shift or change overnight. The underlying details of our market (between demand, cash sale ratio, and even a shift from being predominantly a 2nd home transient type market to more people making SWFL their more permanent home base) leaves plenty of reason for us to stay encouraged about the long term sustainability of our current market.

Let’s keep up the great work everyone, take care of your clients, and practice well my friends!

Have a great weekend!

Cheers,

Adam

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